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Attached I made a short analysis of the returns that the top 10 coins made in the reports that were sent out last week and two weeks ago. The results are promising. However please note that these results do not in any way guarantee results in the future. Moreover, markets have been good and there is not enough data to test for significance. Use this report as a signal and always do your own research before investing. No rights can be derived of this and I am not responsible for errors in the calculation.
New reports are available. These were sent (via email) out earlier today to those subscribed and those donating to the project. Interesting to see that for example Power Ledger (POWR) is showing significant returns. POWR is also significantly present in the (short term) Twitter signals.
Growing the dataset gives opportunity to do some more detailed analysis of looking in to sentiment metrics vs prices. In the picture I took a look at LSK for which I took a position a while ago based on rising number of recipients. The chart does give some indication of a leading relationship. Although the dataset has to grow in order to make statistically significant statement, this does looks promising in my opinion.
I am a believer of fundamental (not technical) analysis in order to value coins (as a supplement to plain research and common sense). Coming from a traditional investment background I coded a scorecard to value cryptocurrency based on Twitter, Google, Reddit and Github analysis . The code score the metrics below with a Z-score (each value is score relative to a normal distribution with mean = 0 and standard deviation = 1. Then, given pre determined weights, each coin is scored on how it compares to the other top 100 coins. In case someone has feedback or questions let me know
Mentions – Number of Tweets on a coin relative to its market cap
Recipients – Number of people that receive the Tweet relative to its market cap
Sentiment – Average tone of Tweets (positive or negative)
Subscr – Numbers of subscribers to a subreddit relative to market cap
U onl – Number of average online users on a Subreddit relative to market cap
Sentiment – Average tone of posts of top 25 (positive or negative)
Number of searches on coin relative to its market cap